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From
•>>September 2002 Gabriele
Hegerl
answers a few questions about this month's
fast moving front in the field of Geosciences.
Article: "Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change"
Authors: Hegerl,
GC;Hasselmann, K;Cubasch, U;Mitchell, JFB;Roeckner, E;Voss, R;Waszkewitz, J
Journal: CLIM DYNAM, 13: (9) 613-634 SEP 1997
Addresses:
MAX PLANCK INST METEOROL, HAMBURG, GERMANY.
DEUTSCH KLIMARECHENZENTRUM, HAMBURG, GERMANY.
HADLEY CTR CLIMATE PREDICT & RES, BRACKNELL, BERKS, ENGLAND.
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Why
do you think your paper is highly cited?
It is the first paper applying a "rigorous" method for
distinguishing among the different factors that influence climate,
such as greenhouse warming, aerosol cooling, and the influence of
solar radiation. So it describes and applies a new technique to an
exciting problem.
Does
it describe a new discovery or new methodology that's useful to
others?
It is new in its application to the climate change problem. The
technique itself is a well-known mathematical approach (multiple
regression), but we have tailored it to the climate change problem
in a novel way.
Could
you summarize the significance of your paper in layman's terms?
The paper tries to determine if greenhouse warming is apparent in
surface temperature trends, and if, additionally, sulfate aerosol
influence is obvious in the data. It also establishes if
climate-model simulations are in agreement with the most important
aspects of the observed temperature trends across the globe. The
paper concludes that greenhouse warming is apparent in the data,
that sulfate aerosols have an important contribution, and that solar
effects by themselves or natural climate variability alone cannot
explain the data. Our paper describes changes in climate, and shows
that only the human-induced increase in greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere combined with other anthropogenic influences can fully
explain it.
How
did you become involved in this research?
I worked as a research scientist at the Max-Planck institute for
Meteorology in Hamburg, which has an extensive modeling group and
this gave me the opportunity to use the latest simulations for my
research. I developed the method together with its director, Klaus
Hasselmann, who is truly an outstanding scientist. My contacts to
other modeling groups provided me with the opportunity to use more
than one model's data while those with the observationalists helped
me gather the latest observed data.
Gabriele Hegerl
Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences,
Nicholas School for the Environment,
Box 90227
Duke University, Durham NC 27708
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