What
first prompted you to look at how temperature and carbon dioxide
together would affect global warming?
Well, my first job after getting my Ph.D. was at the University
of Essex, and I worked there for many years on the effect of
temperature on plants, particularly the mechanism by which
temperature affects photosynthesis. And then, getting into this
paper, one of the people I corresponded with in the States was Burt
Drake, who worked at the Smithsonian in the same area but had become
interested in the effects of rising carbon dioxide on plants. In
1989, I spent a sabbatical with him and that got me into thinking
about carbon dioxide as well as temperature. And then the paper was
really more about trying to make a point. At that time in global
change research, most of the predictions were based on the effect of
temperature alone on plants. And what they seemed to ignore was the
interaction between temperature and carbon dioxide, because carbon
dioxide, of course, is a substrate for plants. If the temperature
rise is caused by rising carbon dioxide, then the plants will
respond to both these changes. And it was already known from theory
that carbon dioxide and temperature should interact in this way.
Most of the theory behind that paper was already in the literature.
The key work was the work of Farquhar, Von Caemmerer, and Berry,
which had been done in 1982. So I was really using their theory to
then explain how carbon dioxide would strongly affect the way plants
responded to rising temperature. Essentially I was using their
theory to simulate what would happen and to make the point that
people had to take this response to carbon dioxide into effect in
their simulations as well as the plant's response to temperature.
What
made you decide to submit it to Plant Cell and Environment?
At the time, what I was proposing was really going against a lot
of what had already been written on the subject. But Plant Cell
and Environment had a reputation for publishing novel work, work
that might not have everybody's approval, so that's why I submitted
it there. That was the first journal I tried. I knew that some
researchers would be opposed to the idea, and I wanted to send it
somewhere that would be willing to publish something fresh.
Were
you surprised at the paper's impact?
Yes. I expected that it would cause some discussion and maybe
some rethinking. But I never really thought it would be quite as
highly cited as it has been.
How
did the community respond to it?
Well, I think this carbon dioxide-temperature interaction is now
incorporated in many of the global change models. In hindsight, the
long-term response has been positive in that many people have used
it. It encouraged people to look at the interaction between
temperature and elevated carbon dioxide, and the field has moved a
long way since then. We have conducted work ourselves that has
refined our understanding of this response, and the interaction
between temperature and rising carbon dioxide, and many other groups
have taken that much further.
Were
there any serendipitous factors that made this paper happen?
Probably just spending that sabbatical period with Burt Drake. He
was very influential on my thinking. I had the background in
temperature. And he got me working with carbon dioxide as well, and
that made me start thinking about the interaction between the two.
What
would you say is the biggest challenge right now in your research?
Certainly one of the biggest challenges is to gain more certainty
about how plants and ecosystems are going to respond in the long
term to elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature. We know a
lot about the short term, and we, of course, have models of the
longer term, but we really need experiments that are going to give
us definitive answers.
So
how do you go about doing that?
Well, that’s something we have been grappling with. There have
been experiments, for example, with elevated carbon dioxide—the
Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment experiment, for one, abbreviated
as FACE. These are large field experiments with elevated carbon
dioxide that try to look at how systems respond. One of the
challenges now is to combine that technology with warming in the
field. And people have tried various methods; for example, warming
the soil. We're looking at the possibility of actually warming by
free release of the heat. It is fairly expensive in terms of
electricity use, but if we're really going to obtain answers about
how these systems will respond, we need these field experiments to
back up our models. There seems to be no other way to do it.
Are
you satisfied with the pace of your research and how far you’ve come
in the past decade?
In a sense it's impossible to be satisfied with the pace of
research. Especially when, as in this particular case, we are
looking at a change which is actually happening in the environment
now. Certainly rising carbon dioxide is now evident and the
temperature is beginning to increase. We're acutely aware of the
fact that we have to get answers quickly, but we need to be getting
the correct answers. Our biggest frustration is that despite all the
research in this area, and despite the importance of global change,
this research is not actually higher on the national agendas than it
is.
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