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“The thematic topic of this paper may be considered as a new discovery because it was thought, prior to September 2002 that a major SSW could happen only in the Northern Hemisphere.”
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The thematic topic of this paper may be considered as a new
discovery because it was thought, prior to September 2002, that a
major SSW could happen only in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition,
it is suggested that the major SSW did not allow the heterogeneous
chemical reactions, which are substantially active at very low
temperatures, to lead to a considerable chemical ozone loss.
Therefore, this first-ever observed event of these extremely high
temperatures in the polar stratosphere led to the explanation of the
drastic reduction of the size and intensity of the Antarctic ozone
hole in 2002, which does not promise a recovery of the ozone layer.
Could
you summarize the significance of your paper in layman's terms?
Polar ozone loss is linked to the perturbations of the polar
vortices, which are prominent features of the winter stratosphere in
both hemispheres.
Although the zonal-mean temperature normally decreases towards
the winter pole in the stratosphere, sometimes the polar
stratospheric temperatures increase rapidly with time (stratospheric
sudden warming). If the poleward increase of temperature is strong,
then a reversal of zonal-mean winds from westerly to easterly
direction is observed. Such an event is often called major SSW.
From a dynamical point of view, SSW is a transient phenomenon
observed in the middle atmosphere, where during some winters the
upward-propagating planetary waves from the troposphere cause a
sudden breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex. Therefore quite
strong planetary waves cause major SSW.
It was previously considered that planetary activity is much
weaker in the Southern Hemisphere due to various reasons (e.g., the
reduced mountainous land cover, weaker longitudinal land-sea
contrast, and the presence of the cold, elevated Antarctic continent
at the pole). Therefore, since the beginning of Antarctic
temperature records dating back to 1940, a growing body of evidence
had accumulated against a possible occurrence of a major SSW and
split of the Antarctic vortex. In particular, according to the
available record of observations, the major SSWs only occurred in
one or two northern winters, and they had not been observed in the
Southern Hemisphere before September of 2002.
On September 24th and 25th in 2002, the
diminutive Antarctic ozone hole split into two parts. It was
attributed to the puzzling occurrence of a major, sudden
stratospheric warming (SSW) in Antarctica—an event which appeared
for the first time in that region. Processes based on the nonlinear
nature of atmospheric dynamics could probably address the question,
"What caused the southern hemisphere to exhibit very strong
planetary waves in 2002?" that is now of main interest.
How
did you become involved in this research, and were any problems
encountered along the way?
Since 1980 we have been performing various atmospheric
measurements utilizing ground-based and balloon-borne
instrumentation. Simultaneously, we analyze satellite observations
in order to explore both the temporal and spatial variability of the
atmosphere.
In recent years we have studied aspects of the non-linear nature
of atmospheric phenomena. Among these is a focus on the study of
atmospheric ozone variability through the employment of new
analytical techniques. Although we have already reached promising
results, problems such as a complete understanding of the intrinsic
properties of the atmospheric variables remain far from being
solved.
If
applicable, what are the social or political implications of your
research?
In 1970 Professor Dr. Paul J. Crutzen pioneered in the discussion
of adverse impacts on the ozone layer of nitrogen oxides from
fertilizers and from supersonic aircraft. In 1974 Professors F.
Sherwood Rowland and Mario J. Molina identified CFCs
(chlorofluorocarbons) as ozone destroyers, which has been confirmed
by subsequent studies. In recognition of their pioneering work,
these three scientists were awarded the Nobel Prize for Chemistry in
1995.
The ongoing depletion of the ozone layer due to anthropogenic
impacts results in the enhancement of surface ultraviolet radiation,
which may lead to dangerous consequences for man and the biosphere.
The implications of this ozone depletion would be horrendous,
including nearly an additional 19 million cases more of non-melanoma
skin cancer up to the year 2060 and three million more cases up to
the year 2030. The number of eye cataracts would increase also by
about 130 million cases by the year 2060 and approximately 50% of
these cases would occur in developing countries.
There are many unquantifiable effects such as the loss of
immunity, the adverse impact on animals, the lower productivity of
crops, damage to aquatic ecosystems, and others. However, as stated
above, the driving mechanism for the diminutive ozone hole over
Antarctica in 2002 was of a dynamical nature and it cannot be
considered as a recovery of the ozone layer.
Knowledge of the present status of ozone depletion in the
stratosphere is a crucial component of the scientific input provided
to the United Nations Montreal Protocol on the ozone layer and the
deliberations of the countries which are parties to the Protocol on
matters related to the protection of the ozone layer are of major
importance.
Assoc. Professor Costas Varotsos
University of Athens
Faculty of Physics
Dept. of Applied Physics
Lab. of Upper Air
University Campus
Athens, Greece